Exiguous returns to sponsor states

Across ten thousand simulations of NORI-D, revenue to sponsoring states is small — and, in nearly half of runs, zero. The International Seabed Authority’s royalties are almost the whole of the public take.

Proponent base case

On the proponent’s own figures, the split looks roughly even

Under proponent assumptions, public revenue divides somewhat equally between the ISA and the sponsoring state.

ISA royalties (lower)Sponsoring state (upper)

Because sponsoring-state revenue lands late, discounting tips the balance toward the ISA. In Net Present Value:

49%

Real $

ISA 49% · State 51%

≈ $12bn

54%

NPV @ 8%

ISA 54% · State 46%

≈ $4.3bn

Dollar figures are approximate lifetime totals (US$), real and discounted at 8%.

Monte Carlo means

Stress-test it, and there is less to divide

For the sponsoring state, revenue is lower and comes later.

ISA royalties (lower)Sponsoring state (upper)

Monte Carlo means, runs where the sponsoring state collects.

Share of public revenue

And almost all of it goes to the ISA

Of the public revenue that remains, royalties take the overwhelming majority — and discounting pushes the ISA’s share higher still.

87%

Real $

ISA 87% · State 13%

≈ $3.7bn

91%

NPV @ 8%

ISA 91% · State 9%

≈ $1.4bn

Dollar figures are approximate lifetime totals (US$), real and discounted at 8%.

48%

of all runs, Corporate Income Tax is never imposed

Instability scorecard

Royalties are steady. Taxes on profits are not.

Each dot is one modelled outcome. The ISA’s royalties cluster around $3bn. But the sponsoring state has wide variation.

ISA royaltiesSponsoring state

The realisation filter

Not all of that gets collected

Every figure so far is statutory take — what the rules say is owed. What a treasury actually banks is usually less, sometimes a lot less. The model applies a realisation filter, based on real tax-authority experience, sorting each revenue stream into one of three governance bands.

Each bar is a real-world collection rate; the axis is the share of statutory take actually banked.

ISA royalties are modelled in the Medium band. But the ISA has never collected a cent, has no audit history, and would oversee remote, hard-to-verify operations — so a one-band-lower outcome is the central case, not the tail.

On paper vs enforced

What a regime promises is not what it banks

How close to complete tax take is depends on two things: the instrument (royalties are easier to assess), and overall levels of governance.

Expected take is frequency-weighted across the ten thousand runs; regime 6 excluded.